Links between moderate alcohol consumption and premature death are “overstated”, according to a world-renowned data scientist.
Statistically, the risk of drinking one beer or wine a day on life expectancy is no greater than driving a car or eating bacon, he said. Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, statistician University of Cambridge.
Many health organizations have leaned toward a drier public health policy: the World Health Organization He has said that there is no safe level of alcohol.
But Sir Spiegelhalter He told the BBC: ‘Frankly, I am irritated that the harms of low levels are exaggerated, particularly with statements such as “no level of alcohol is safe.”
“I don’t think the evidence supports that to begin with, but there’s no safe level of driving, there’s no safe level of living, but no one’s recommending abstention.”
He said research indicated that drinking in small amounts actually had health benefits.
WHO researchers warned that alcohol consumption is a major risk factor for premature mortality and disability, with young people disproportionately affected.
Over the past decade, the tide has been turning against alcohol.
A major study from Oxford University published in June 2023 linked regular alcohol consumption to more than 60 diseases, including cancer, diabetes, gout and cataracts.
That same year, Canadian health officials issued new guidelines on alcohol consumption in the country based on their review of the research and set a limit of just two drinks per week.
Dr Tim Stockwell, a scientist at the Canadian Institute for Substance Use Research who sat on the panel that set the new guidelines, told the BBC: “There is growing evidence that there is no benefit and that alcohol is essentially a risky substance.”
And last year, US officials told DailyMail.com they were considering changing alcohol guidelines to no more than two beers a week by 2025.
It is true that drinking large quantities daily is bad for your health, Sir Spiegelhalter said.
But the average person is more likely to be a moderate drinker (having one or two drinks a day) and at that level of consumption, Sir Spiegelhalter said research shows the health effects are very small.
“Whatever the risks[of having one or two drinks a day]we know they are very low, and we also know they are incredibly difficult to calculate.”
He called the Canadian guidelines “completely unnecessary. I think it’s about addressing a problem that doesn’t exist.”
Furthermore, telling people who already drink minimally that they need to drink less could make them distrust public health officials in general.
Moreover, he said, the argument for abstaining for health reasons often ignores a crucial factor about alcohol: It brings people joy.
Statistician Sir David Spiegelhalter said recommendations restricting moderate alcohol consumption were often exaggerated.
Sir Spiegelhalter said there was even a “benefit to drinking at low to moderate levels, and that is never mentioned in these discussions”.
These benefits are primarily social. People consume alcohol to relieve anxiety when socializing or as an excuse to meet up with friends they haven’t seen in a long time.
Other times, people simply like the taste and enjoy savoring a glass of wine along with a steak dinner, perhaps.
“I think we should accept that people drink for a reason: they really enjoy it,” Sir Spiegelhalter said.
That’s not to say he’s in favor of not setting any guidelines. He said the current guidelines being followed by the U.K.’s National Health Service are ideal.
These include drinking no more than 14 units of alcohol a week, which would be equivalent to 14 shots of spirits, or six medium glasses of wine or pints of beer.
This is similar to the current one. recommendations established in the USA – which state that men should have two drinks or less a day and women should have one drink or less a day.
There is still a risk at that level of consumption, Sir Spiegelhalter said, but it is roughly the same level of risk associated with watching an hour of television a day or two bacon sandwiches a week.
People still choose to do things that pose a risk to their health, such as eating foods high in fat and salt, like bacon.
Dr Spiegelhalter said: “These seem to be imminent and acceptable risks that people voluntarily take in their lives. People are adults and can make their own decisions about this.”
