New satellite images have revealed that an Iranian air base suffered significant damage as a result of an Israeli strike on Friday.
Israel sent a retaliatory missile to hit an Iranian target in the central province of Isfahan early Friday morning, a week after Iran sent a salvo of 300 missiles and drones to Israel.
The attack was in response to a missile attack on an Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, which killed seven people, including two senior generals.
Although Iran has claimed that no military bases were damaged, a bbc Analysis of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellite images captured over Isfahan on Friday revealed that Shikari Air Base suffered material damage on Friday.
Debris and damage can be seen around a main component, probably a radar, which changed position slightly.
Debris and damage can be seen around a major component, probably a radar, which changed position slightly.
Several positions at the base that would normally house S-300 missile launchers have also been eliminated since the attack, and it is currently unclear where they have gone.
There were fears that Iran’s nuclear sites would be damaged during retaliatory strikes, although the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency has said there was “no damage to Iran’s nuclear sites”.
Iranian officials sought to downplay any significant damage to its military facilities and strongly denied that any nuclear plants had been destroyed, while Iranian state television this morning published images of a quiet Isfahan to cast doubt on reports that the city had been attacked.
Experts said the strike was aimed at “de-escalation” and allowing both countries to step away from rising tensions while saving face.
Dr Andreas Krieg, a Middle East security expert and senior lecturer at the School of Security Studies at King’s College London, told MailOnline that such a limited attack could be seen as an effort by Tel Aviv to extricate itself from a kinetic conflict. important.
‘If this is the extent of Israel’s retaliation, it could be described as a de-escalation attack. “The use of small drones as quadcopters provides a degree of plausible deniability that could help Iran downplay the effect of the attack,” he stated.
‘We could say that this attack marks a return to the shadow war that has been going on for years if that is the extent of it.
He added: “The Iranians would have to respond to an attack that cannot be denied or that would involve Israeli aircraft over Iran, but this attack does not cross the threshold.” Neither side wants an all-out war.”
“I think Netanyahu is better off with a protracted but manageable conflict. That can be achieved by expanding the conflict with Iran’s Axis of Resistance. This is a low-risk conflict that keeps Israel on high alert without the risk of becoming existential.
‘Israel could decide to launch a series of attacks spread over time that individually are so insignificant that Iran does not have to respond. ‘Israel could resort to Iran’s strategy of “death by 1,000 cuts,” which is difficult to deter.’
Justin Crump, a British Army veteran and CEO of global risk analytics firm Sibylline, expressed similar sentiments.
“It remains to be seen whether this is the start of a more concerted campaign by Israel to constantly damage Iran while staying below the escalation threshold, or is an isolated act,” he told MailOnline following the overnight attacks.
‘Iran has its own internal problems with spiraling inflation and anti-regime sentiment and is so far keen to keep things from escalating. While you have similar ways of responding below the threshold, and probably will, this limits further escalation.
“However,” he continued, “this cannot really be a return to normality and would suggest that honor is far from satisfied on both sides at this time.”
While he said the Israeli attacks “may give the illusion that we have threaded the needle of the crisis, […] “The base level of alert across the region will now be heightened for an extended period.”
He added: ‘The risk of miscalculations is greater and many points of tension remain, most obviously in Gaza, but also around Iran’s nuclear ambitions and capabilities. If this really is from Israel […] “So there is a window for intense diplomacy, but it remains to be seen how long it will remain stable and open.”