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Week 15 brought some very peculiar performances from runners. While big names like Saquon Barkley, Joe Mixon and Derrick Henry grossly underperformed, random running backs delivered top-12 performances…probably on your fantasy bench.
What should we make of the great performances of Tyjae Spears, Jerome Ford and Justice Hill? Are they simply one-week wonders or do they offer real value worth starting next week?
Jerome Ford, running back, Cleveland Browns
Ford is the clearest runner in this group going forward. Nick Chubb broke his foot and will be out for the rest of the season. Ford was the only other running back to touch the ball on Sunday, and that has been the trend over the past few weeks. D’Onta Foreman has been a healthy scratch and hasn’t played since Week 8. Pierre Strong hasn’t had more than two touches in a single game since Week 7.
Ford is the next clear man and should be the leader going forward.
If you look at the Browns running game this season, I can understand why you wouldn’t want anything to do with Ford. Chubb has been the leading rusher since returning in Week 7 and has had no success on the field aside from a two-touchdown performance against Pittsburgh. The Browns had been extremely pass-happy, as Jameis Winston typically threw over 40 attempts per game and had the third-worst rushing yards and second-fewest rushing touchdowns in the league.
pulse control: Is Ford usable or is it intended for Chubb-like performances?
This isn’t the first time we’ve seen Ford lead this season. While it may serve as a reference point, the Browns were inconsistent in their usage, occasionally giving the bulk of the carries to Foreman even though Ford was clearly outplaying him. The Browns are a little quirky about their picks, so they could put Ford on a committee. However, given the matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals and the lack of touches from other running backs over the past two months, I’m confident he’ll have enough volume next week to be fantasy relevant. The Bengals have one of the most unselfish defenses across the board in the league (more on that later). Ford should classify as a low-end RB2 in Week 16.
Tyjae Spears, RB, Tennessee Titans
Spears’ Week 15 definitely needs some analysis to evaluate her performance and potential moving forward. Spears had just four carries for five yards, but had a rushing touchdown, a strange but impressive goal-line score. He got the touchdown early in the game after Tony Pollard scored a goal-line touchdown. It’s worth noting so we understand the context: The touchdown came when Pollard was healthy and was the result of the Titans swapping players for a change of pace.
There is also the added caveat that Pollard was injured during the game. He left the game with an ankle injury but came back and played. Pollard had been dealing with an injury earlier in the week, so it’s possible this is the same injury he had been suffering from. Since he returned, you won’t see any questionable labels next to his name.
Pollard was not present for the Titans’ last two drives. This did not appear to be due to an injury, but rather the Titans were looking for points and aggressively pivoting to the pass. Spears benefited from being used as a pass catcher on those late drives and most of Spears’ fantasy production came through the air: six receptions on seven targets for 87 yards and a receiving touchdown.
pulse control: Does Spears have a chance to be the Titans’ RB1 next week?
The fact that Pollard returned to the game and that most of Spears’ production came from the Titans dropping out of the race means Spears could be fool’s gold who will only benefit if Pollard’s injury flares up during the week and doesn’t You can put on the suit. If Pollard is healthy in Week 16, in what should be a much more competitive game against Indianapolis followed by another competitive game against Jacksonville, the Titans would likely return to normal usage with Pollard seeing the bulk of the carries and being the only Fantasy usable. active out of the backfield.
Justice Hill, RB, Baltimore Ravens
Hill’s performance at RB1 was fun and absolutely random, but it wasn’t technically a one-week wonder. It’s more of a “this is going to happen; It’s just a question of whether you’re going to catch it.” Hill is no stranger to having big receiving days. He had an RB1 performance in Week 4 against Buffalo, RB2 performances against Tampa Bay and the Chargers, and often falls into RB3-RB4 territory.
Frankly, you can look at the numbers all day, but there’s no real consistency to his best performances. They can come in a blowout or in a close match. It’s a Hail Mary play that you can get right, and if you don’t, it won’t hurt as much.
pulse control: Should we have any expectations for Hill?
Next week’s matchup is against Pittsburgh and we’ve actually seen this matchup before. It was a close, low-scoring game in which Hill had decent receiving volume and finished as RB29 with 6.1 fantasy points in half of PPR. However, he should stay on fantasy benches unless absolutely desperate or in extremely deep leagues.
But there is more…
I think we should also take a look at a couple of running backs who have worked their way up the depth chart into reliable set-it-and-forget-it assets. It’s time for Fantasy managers to accept these two late-season RB1s as true, unquestionable locks.
Chase Brown, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
It’s strange for me to write about this topic, as I’ve been a true Chase Brown defender since day one. Brown is simply achieving the destiny he set out to do all along. All he needed was the opportunity. Brown hasn’t finished outside the top 12 since Week 8, when Zach Moss was injured, and should remain there for the rest of the season.
pulse control: What makes Brown a perennial top-12 running back?
Brown has everything going for him, and I really mean that. He’s the only running back the Bengals trust. Since Week 9, a total of three touches have gone to a running back not named Chase Brown. It’s perhaps the most dramatic bunting disparity in the entire league. The combination of Cincinnati’s prolific offense and their horrible defense means that Brown has ample scoring opportunities and is consistently a high-volume playmaker. His receiving advantage means he can never be left out of games, and the Bengals aren’t afraid to send him downfield.
It is not simply a control corridor. It is truly a fail-safe runner.
Rico Dowdle, running back, Dallas Cowboys
Dowdle doesn’t get the same level of ringing endorsement that I gave Brown, but he’s absolutely reached the point of being a must-have weekly start.
Week 15 was a strange game. It was the first game in which Dowdle was not targeted. However, his volume on the field remained strong. Since the Cowboys finally committed to Dowdle as RB1, he has had a minimum of 19 touches over the last four weeks and a minimum of 86 rushing yards. This week, he had 25 carries for 149 yards, a career high.
pulse control: To what extent does the Cowboys’ rest-of-season schedule affect Dowdle?
Next week, the Cowboys get the Buccaneers. It’s not necessarily a great matchup against the run, but it’s decent enough to feel comfortable with Dowdle. If the Bucs dominate the Cowboys, it could also force an increase in receiving work, which would benefit Dowdle’s fantasy production. In Week 17, Dowdle will likely take a step back in the standings against a tough Philadelphia run defense in a matchup he faced in Week 10. In that game, he scored fewer than 10 fantasy points on just 12 carries. However, it should be noted that this was before the Cowboys’ commitment to him as RB1. He will likely see a heavy workload and have an RB2 floor.