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There were hits and misses on the Week 12 sleep page, just like any other week. Luke Schoonmaker, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Roschon Johnson scored and Will Dissly was solid, as always. We like that. But Quentin Johnston toasted a bagel on Monday (so many gut-wrenching drops) and there were a few other bricks.
We hope you don’t need many sleepers in your Week 13 lineups. All 32 NFL clubs are in action this week and you’re probably fighting for a playoff spot. The stakes are increasing. But if you have been affected by injuries or poor performance, perhaps some of these names can help you.
RB Gus Edwards vs. Falcons (44%)
At this point in the game, we know what Edwards is: a two-down player who offers almost nothing in the passing game. However, he will be the first to look at the goal line with JK Dobbins (knee) about to miss time, and the Falcons feature a speedy defense that is slightly below average in most metrics. Edwards probably needs a touchdown to make up for his projection, but I’d give him a better than 50% chance of getting that score here.
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RB Jeremy McNichols vs. Titans (12%)
Here’s another running back who hasn’t shown anything in the passing game (only two receptions), but McNichols has been efficient when asked to carry the ball (in a slight surprise, your success rate is actually slightly higher than Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler). You’ll have to do your injury due diligence with Washington this week, with Robinson dealing with an ankle injury and Ekeler in concussion protocol. If neither can go, McNichols is in play against an average Tennessee run defense.
RB Ameer Abdullah at Chiefs (22%)
Here’s his Black Friday special, a pass-catching specialist who could see a favorable game script against the heavily favored Chiefs (assuming Alexander Mattison and Zamir White are unavailable again). Abdullah’s rushing skills are modest, but he has played a useful 8-53-2 role in the passing game over the past two weeks. Let Kansas City build a lead and watch Abdullah make those catches, especially fun if your league has any PPR component to the scoring.
WR Devaughn Vele vs. Browns (17%)
Bo Nix isn’t the only winning rookie in Denver; Vele’s role continues to expand and he has been impressive. Vele is coming off his most active and productive game of the year (6-80-0, nine goals) and Monday’s draw is favorable, against a Cleveland secondary that is allowed fifth most points for opposing wide receivers. Edge specialist Courtland Sutton is the undeniable alpha in Denver’s passing game, but Vele will likely see a 20% or higher target share at this spot.
WR Adam Thielen (27%), David Moore (1%) against buccaneers
One of the biggest fantasy stories of Week 12 was the emergence of Bryce Young, who looked poised and in control against Kansas City’s intimidating defense. Young was undeterred by the blitz packages and made several shots on goal despite the challenging pressure. It appears the Panthers knew what they were doing when they temporarily benched Young; He seems like a different player since his return.
This means we can begin attacking Carolina’s receiver room with some level of confidence. Thielen’s resume probably makes him the most comfortable sleeper, with a solid 3-57-0 line in his return from injury, but we also have to note that Moore saw heavy usage in the Kansas City game (6 -81-1) and tied. the team’s 10 best goals. The Buccaneers play a lot of shootouts, with a capable offense and a leaky secondary. Maybe the Panthers can hold up their end of the deal.
WR Márquez Valdés-Scantling vs. Rams (28%)
Some Fantasy managers didn’t want to keep MVS during the bye week, and I understand that, given his history of inconsistent performance. And even in two successful games, they have had limited volume: just seven goals led to their 5-196-3 line in the last two games. The hope is that Valdez-Scantling makes a big play to justify his faith, and at least there is little competition in this offense. The Rams secondary has been a positive matchup for most of 2024.
WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine vs. Commanders (15%)
It’s becoming a case of “cut and paste” with NWI, a low-shooter who somehow scored in 6 of 7 games. NWI is seeing over 90% shares each week following the DeAndre Hopkins trade, making him the second-highest target on their offense. I’m not afraid to match him against an average Washington defense; The Commanders are heavy favorites, which could push Tennessee into a more proactive passing game.
TE Luke Schoonmaker vs. Giants (10%)
I’m surprised his roster tag has remained so low, after Schoonmaker gave us 6-56-0 and 3-55-1 in consecutive weeks. Cooper Rush has been a competent quarterback in both games, and the Cowboys aren’t likely to have Jake Ferguson on Thanksgiving. There’s a good chance Schoonmaker will be the second read in Dallas’ offense, the guy to look for when CeeDee Lamb isn’t open. New York’s tight end coverage has been solid this year, although it hasn’t faced a difficult schedule. Ferguson got them on seven receptions in Week 4.