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It can be very easy to panic in fantasy football. After all, we have a very limited amount of time to witness and analyze a player’s performance. But fear not: Dalton Del Don is here to assess exactly how worried we should be, if we should be.
Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers
McCaffrey continues to test the patience of his Fantasy managers, as he would only be the RB29 with 0.5 PPR Fantasy points per game (10.9) on the season. Last week you can blame a San Francisco offense that was without Brock Purdy and Trent Williams, but CMC’s numbers are going down across the board more than three games since his return. He’s posting a career-low 3.5 YPC and his lowest YPT since 2020. McCaffrey likely won’t be the same player when he returns from bilateral Achilles tendonitis, but The 49ers’ offense has also struggled at times. since losing Brandon Aiyuk.
However, McCaffrey’s usage remains elite: He had 93% snap participation and saw all 15 of his RB snaps heading into the final two drives of San Francisco’s loss last week. The 49ers may be floundering in the win/loss column, but their offense has gained the second-most yards per play (6.3) this season despite last week’s ugly showing with a backup QB and LT. San Francisco has second best yardage differential in the NFL. The 49ers rank in the bottom five in red zone TD percentage (50.0%) after ranking first (68.0%) last season, so scoring regression should be coming.
Given CMC’s role in this offense, even a lesser version can easily become a top-five fantasy down the stretch, but we need a healthy Purdy for that to happen.
Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams
Few coaches love a player more than Sean McVay loves Williams, but the running back has turned the ball over four times (turning over two) in the last four games. Williams has five fumbles (among non-QBs), the most in the NFL, and lost two during one of Los Angeles’ final games last season. Williams is getting just 4.0 YPC and hasn’t seen a single target in the last two games. It is possible that he is wear out given incredibly high use (third place in RB snaps) and his size.
That being said, Williams had a 90% snap share and 16 of 17 RB opportunities after fumbling in last week’s game. Another fumble or two could change things quickly, but his workhorse role appears intact for now. Matthew Stafford is averaging 287.5 passing yards and 2.2 touchdowns with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp this season, making the Rams offense one of the best in the league when healthy. Additionally, Williams’ schedule has been the 10th toughest in the league so far, but gets the third easiest place to move on.
Williams could still have a big fantasy finish, but fantasy managers will be constantly worried about him fumbling again.
CJ Stroud, Houston Texans
Stroud is the 26th QB in fantasy points per game, just ahead of the recently released (and now new Viking) Daniel Jones. Stroud has just two weekly top-five QB finishes during his career, and both occurred last season. he classifies 24 in EPA/return and 32nd in completion percentage over expectations. He has also been the most pressured QB in the league. Stroud has taken a step back in his second year, and is the latest example of the risk of drafting a fantasy-heavy quarterback who doesn’t run.
However, there is now some hope that Nico Collins will be fully healthy again. Stroud has averaged just 197.2 passing yards and 1.0 passing touchdowns without Collins on the field this season, but has averaged 269.9 and 1.3 with him on it. Houston also sees a significant increase in the approval rate (61.7%) and PROE (+7.1%) with Collins on the field compared to when he is not (53.0%, -2.2%). Stroud would still only be the QB19 (15.8 fpg) during games with Collins, but it’s worth noting. the duo had two long touchdown connections (for a total of 110 yards) negated by shaky penalties over the past two weeks.
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Stefon Diggs isn’t returning, but Tank Dell could be more explosive the further he gets from leg surgery (like Tony Pollard last year). Additionally, the Texans’ quarterback schedule is the eighth most favorable in the league in the future, including an excellent matchup this week. Stroud should start putting up better stats down the stretch, but he’s been one of the biggest fantasy busts this season.
Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona Cardinals
Murray’s up-and-down season continued with a flop last week, when Arizona scored just six points in a matchup with one of the highest projected totals of the week. But Seattle’s defense has been playing much better lately, as Seahawks rank fourth in EPA/play allowed since he traded for Ernest Jones. Additionally, Michael Wilson caught a touchdown that was nullified by a penalty, while Marvin Harrison Jr. was unable to set a second foot in the end zone on the next play. Murray has had The toughest quarterback schedule in the league yet.but gets an average one in the future.
Murray has been a top-five QB the same number of weeks (four) this season as he has been a bottom-10 QB, so expect more inconsistent play down the stretch.
Harrison Jr. has seen nothing but seven goals in one game since Week 3 and didn’t experience a rookie hit after Arizona’s bye last week. No wide receiver in the top 60 is averaging fewer fantasy points per game if you eliminated touchdowns.
This isn’t all Harrison Jr.’s fault, as his role in Arizona’s offense has been a major hindrance to production. But the rookie catcher also ranks 84th in ESPN Open Scoring and #55 in Average Separation Score. MHJ has fewer catches (36) this year than Jalen Tolbert, Will Dissly, Javonte Williams, Ray-Ray McCloud and Zach Ertz, among many others. Harrison Jr. has a teammate who led the league in first read target rate (58.8%!) last week, and Arizona has one of the lowest approval rates above expectations (-6.0%).
Rookie wide receivers generally perform better late in the season, and the Cardinals’ WR schedule moves from third-toughest so far to the sixth easiest to move forward. Still, Harrison Jr. is on pace to be one of this year’s biggest fantasy busts.