Donald Trump says he will negotiate an end to the war between Russia and Ukraine “on the first day” of his presidency in January next year.
The incoming leader of the Free World is known for his tough talk and uncompromising approach. He is likely to demand urgent peace talks as soon as he returns to the White House, but implementing an immediate ceasefire will be an immense challenge.
However, President Trump is determined to reach a deal and I believe it could be our best hope for avoiding World War III.
The last four years have been catastrophic for global stability. As American influence has declined under Joe Biden’s sclerotic administration, we have seen a succession of threats emerge in response to America’s weakness.
In Afghanistan, the chaotic and hasty withdrawal of allied forces allowed the Taliban to return, despite all the promises made by Western leaders. Biden’s lack of leadership in this area was a complete humiliation for the United States.
It sent a clear signal to the Communists in Beijing that they could expand aggressively, without facing opposition from the United States. The message was heard even more clearly in Moscow, where Vladimir Putin calculated that if Russia invaded Ukraine, the United States might protest but there would be no full-scale war with NATO. It is highly unlikely that Russia would have dared to march on kyiv in 2022 if Trump had been in power.
Putin was not counting on the tenacity of the Ukrainian resistance, of course, nor on the way Britain, under Boris Johnson, would rally European opposition to Putin’s so-called “special operation.” But the Kremlin dictator was right in estimating Biden’s lack of determination.
In Tehran, the ayatollahs saw that too. Iran’s military rise, using proxy armies in Lebanon, the Gaza Strip and Yemen, has been blatant, as has its pursuit of a nuclear weapon.
Donald Trump is known for his tough talk and uncompromising approach. He is determined to reach a deal and I believe it could be our best hope for avoiding World War Three, writes NILE GARDINER.
As American influence has declined under Joe Biden’s sclerotic administration, we have seen a succession of threats emerge in response to America’s weakness.
Currently, all eyes are on Putin and his willingness to use nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).
But an even greater imminent danger of all-out nuclear war will threaten the world if Ali Khamenei and his mullahs manage to build an atomic device with a working detonator. Such is their fanaticism that it is not unlikely that they would be willing to use it against Israel.
Trump understands all this and recognizes that the United States is the only superpower on Earth with the influence to prevent it. He would not have allowed Iran to become the international bully state it is today, just as he slapped North Korea when Kim Jong-Un (the man Trump dubbed “Little Rocket Man”) began testing missiles aimed at the United States. Joined. .
It is also unlikely that Hamas would have perpetrated the sickening atrocities of October 7 last year, had Biden not been in power. The terrorists in Gaza took advantage of America’s weakness, with terrible consequences for everyone.
This combination of disasters has left the planet on the brink of an all-consuming conflagration. Right now, Biden’s extremely risky decision to allow Ukrainian defenders to fire long-range American-made weapons at Russia has been met with a new wave of Russian aggression.
These ATACM (pronounced ‘Attack-em’) missiles have been used on targets deep behind Russian lines. But they have failed to deliver a decisive blow.
And the immediate result has been to give Putin exactly the excuse he wanted to test his latest long-range missiles, the Rubezh hypersonic weapon.
One of them exploded over the city of Dnipro last Thursday, fired from the remote Russian region of Astrakhan more than 400 miles away and covering that distance in just 10 minutes, according to the Reuters news agency.
Biden’s extremely high-risk decision to allow Ukrainian defenders to fire American-made long-range weapons at Russia has run into a new wave of Russian aggression, and provided Vladimir Putin with the excuse that he wanted to test his own latest long range strategy. range missiles
This time the payload consisted of conventional high explosives. But the Rubezh is capable of carrying a nuclear warhead more than 2,000 miles. Launched from this side of the Urals, it could reach London, Berlin or Paris in a matter of minutes. The result would be destruction and millions of deaths, as well as certain nuclear retaliation by NATO.
Putin might also be encouraged to attack Ukraine’s military supply chain, for example by attacking a warehouse beyond the Polish border with a ballistic missile. If that were to happen, how would NATO react?
One thing is certain: the current leadership vacuum in Washington under the Biden administration would falter and endanger us all.
It is difficult to understand what advantage Biden saw in using ATACM missiles so late in the day. They are unlikely to change the rules of the game and have undoubtedly created a more dangerous situation for Trump to inherit.
The truth is that throughout the Ukraine war we have seen little real strategic thinking from Biden and his advisors. It is a clumsy and clueless administration.
Putin knows this and feels strengthened by it. He sees Trump as a much more effective and powerful adversary, especially now that the returning president has an emphatic mandate from voters, with a majority in the Senate and House, and all serious threats of legal action against him likely. They will evaporate.
Trump’s first step toward peace could well be reimposing restrictions on the use of American weapons beyond Ukraine’s borders. Ukraine’s leader Volodymyr Zelensky is well aware of this and will likely adjust his own battle plans accordingly.
The United States’ decision to withdraw permission to use ATACM missiles does not automatically mean that Britain and France will follow suit and suspend the use of Storm Shadow missiles. But the pressure will be on the UK and its European allies to back the US strategy.
Ukrainian service members conduct military exercises at a training camp. Tragic as it may be, Ukraine faces a very difficult task to regain all the territory it has lost to Russia since 2014.
It is essential for future peace that Putin cannot be allowed to annex any more territory from Ukraine, and Trump is well aware of how Zelensky can use Russia’s Kursk region, where kyiv has made a significant incursion, as a bargaining chip in any peace agreement.
But it is also essential that the war does not prolong further. Tragic as it may be, Ukraine faces a very difficult task to regain all the territory it has lost to Russia since 2014; Even President Zelensky admits that occupied Crimea cannot be recovered by force of arms.
And the longer the war goes on, the more it escalates, endangering the world, pushing Europe ever closer to a global conflict and absorbing American resources that are desperately needed in other theaters like the Middle East and the Pacific, where we face a crisis. China increasingly belligerent.
Putin respects no one, but recognizes the difference between strength and weakness. Trump believes this too, and will be aware that the best way to weaken Putin will be to restore peace. This could be painful for Ukraine in the short term, but will leave Moscow with a long-term problem.
The Russian economy is now completely dependent on the war. If fighting stops, so will weapons production, leading to mass unemployment and recession. Putin’s best hope for restoring financial stability will be for the West to increase sanctions.
That leaves Trump with all the power. Instead of lifting sanctions, it could threaten to impose even more. There is plenty of room for the West to strengthen its hold on Moscow.
Many of Europe’s leaders are ideologically opposed to Trump, but there is no doubt that he knows how to seal a deal for his benefit and that of the United States, which will ultimately benefit the entire planet.
– Nile Gardiner is a former assistant to Margaret Thatcher