Six days before Australia Day next year, Donald Trump will assume the US presidency for the second time. It shouldn’t be long before Trump 2.0 begins to change the global political environment, both courtesy of his domestic policy setup and the approach he takes on the international stage.
Whether the next Australian federal election is brought forward (in February or March) or Anthony Albanese makes good on his promise to serve a full term and hold it in May, the campaign will unfold amid a totemic political shift overseas.
Trump will attempt mass deportations from the United States. To fulfill this election promise, you can even use the US military to achieve the desired result. The atmosphere will be tense and conflictive.
How will Australia’s political class react? It will put Labor and the Greens in a more difficult position than the Coalition. The Greens will surely talk about it, what will Albo do?
Trump will undoubtedly withdraw the United States from the Paris Agreement, just as he did in 2016. Such a move has the potential to change the nature of the climate change debate in Australia.
The Labor Party has gone to great lengths to defend its emissions targets and condemn Peter Dutton’s nuclear ambitions. Trump is not the type of foreign leader who will diplomatically stay out of Australia’s affairs as the election looms.
Will Trump’s rhetorical interventions (which are sure to favor Dutton over Albo) help the opposition leader or ring warning bells for Australian voters who consider Trump too extreme?
While Trump tapped into dominant sentiment in the United States, the U.S. electoral system does not include mandatory voting or preference flows. Such differences, combined with cultural variations between our nations, mean that its appeal in the United States may be unmatched here.
Albo runs the risk of becoming the proverbial ham in the sandwich when two great powers go to war, metaphorically speaking.
Can Dutton exploit Trump’s pro-drilling sentiments to isolate Labor and the Greens as threats to mining lead prosperity?
Dutton must be careful not to try to emulate Trump in the mistaken belief that doing so will help him match Trump’s political success.
That said, the incoming US president’s “drill baby, drill” ethos could appeal where it matters most in Australia. Mining is essential to our export economy, so supporting the sector should be important to all Australians, but it is especially important to Western Australians.
Currently, internal party polling suggests Labor is doing better than expected in the west, and the Liberals are not confident of picking up more than one, possibly two seats. The Morrison government lost six of the 11 seats it held ahead of the 2022 election, the federal Liberal Party’s worst performance in WA in 35 years.
Can Dutton exploit Trump’s pro-drilling sentiments to isolate Labor and the Greens as threats to mining lead prosperity? Help win back more seats in the West to help unseat Albo’s parliamentary majority?
Trump’s protectionist agenda is its own threat to Australian exports of all kinds, but what looms larger is the impact Trump’s tariffs could have on China.
China will have to answer: will a domestic stimulus package in China targeting infrastructure create even more demand for Australian iron ore? Or will China retaliate against US allies, which would include Australia, because of Trump’s tariff measures?
Either scenario will put our prime minister in an awkward position ahead of a close election. Albo runs the risk of becoming the proverbial ham in the sandwich when two great powers go to war, metaphorically speaking.
Billionaire Elon Musk has already criticized Albo and his government for their social media policies that affect his business interests. Musk will soon have a formal role within the Trump administration, as he celebrates free speech on tech platforms around the world, while cutting government departments at home.
There’s a good chance Musk will look to do in Australia what he didn’t do before the US election: back a political horse of his choice. That horse surely won’t be Albo.
Our pre-election period will take place in the middle of all of the above, and that’s before we even consider what could happen in Ukraine, the Middle East, and even Taiwan and the South China Sea. Although these heady themes are more likely to matter in the years than in the coming months, beyond the first half of 2025.
Without a doubt, challenges for whoever wins the Australian elections.
The word that best describes the impact that Trump’s victory will have on the upcoming federal election campaign is volatility.
Without overstating the impact who becomes president of the United States can have on our domestic politics, Trump is larger than life and cannot be ignored as a volatile factor that both major party leaders and their strategists must take into account. account.
That attention could even be a factor as Albo contemplates when to call the next election.