Donald Trump led Kamala Harris in the latest DailyMail.com/JL Partners national poll before Election Day, and the former president has a three-point lead over the vice president.
Both candidates have shored up their bases, but Trump has done better in winning support from independents and undecided voters in the final effort, according to the data.
The poll of 1,000 likely voters, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percent, shows Trump trending upward, with support at 49 percent to Harris’ 46 percent.
The race is still close. However, with five days left, the numbers mean Trump is currently on track to become the first Republican candidate since George W. Bush in 2004 to win the popular vote.
The vice president had a one-point lead when the last poll was conducted in September.
JL Partners surveyed 1,000 likely voters Oct. 26-29. The results have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 points, but put Donald Trump back in the lead after falling behind.
She enjoyed a two-month honeymoon after President Joe Biden announced he was ending his re-election campaign. His poll numbers and fundraising surged amid a wave of enthusiasm.
But since then the race has become closer, becoming one of the closest in history.
James Johnson, co-founder of JL Partners, said the poll was good news for Trump’s chances of winning the White House.
“The movement beneath the surface suggests that Trump is having a better final moment to raise enthusiasm than Harris, and undecideds and supporters of third-party candidates have also abandoned Trump in the last month,” he said.
“He has also seen improvements among voters of all races and leads in every age group except 18-29.”
The full results show that third-party candidates are making little progress.
Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr, Green Party candidate Jill Stein and Libertarian Chase Oliver have just one percent.
Independent Cornel West’s share is rounded to zero percent.
Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are locked in a tight race
Perhaps the clearest finding is the gender imbalance in the contest.
“One thing makes this election stand out from the rest: When voters go to the polls next week, they will be sharply divided along gender lines, with women more likely to vote for Harris and men more likely to vote for Trump.” Johnson said. .
Harris can count on the support of 54 percent of women, while Trump has the support of 40 percent.
The men are divided 59 to 37 for Trump.
After hesitations on both sides, the two candidates can now count on the support of their own party. Harris is supported by 94 percent of Democrats; Trump has the support of 93 percent of Republicans.
And there’s more good news for Trump as his campaign works to get out the vote. Enthusiasm for the former president is higher (74 percent say they are very enthusiastic about him) than for Harris (67).
A month ago, Harris led Trump by five points.
But all is not lost for Harris. Trump’s lead is due to a 43-point advantage among rural voters. Harris remains on track to win in the suburbs, where our poll shows her with a two-point lead.
Trump wore a garbage collector’s high-visibility vest at his rally in Wisconsin on Wednesday night, as he tries to keep comments about his supporters being “trash” in the headlines.
Johnson said that was a “ray of light” for Harris.
“That could mean that the Trump vote now appears to be more inefficiently distributed,” he said. “Things could look much closer in swing states if Harris can boost her votes in suburban areas.”
The danger for Trump, he explained, was that he could be accumulating a high number of votes in red states, while the distribution of Harris’ supporters could help her win in swing states.
The two candidates now tour the states that will decide the result in the electoral college.
Both had struggled with negative headlines in the past week.
Trump delivered his closing address Sunday night at Madison Square Garden in New York, an event that was overshadowed by a comedian who made disparaging comments about Puerto Rico.
And Harris made her final speech near the White House, but was upstaged by President Joe Biden, who appeared to call Trump supporters “trash,” though his words were unclear.