With the election just days away, presidential historian dubbed the ‘Nostradamus’ of polling experts Allan Lichtman has stood firm in his prediction that Democratic candidate Kamala Harris will become the next president of the United States.
The 77-year-old American University professor is known for designing his own electoral model that has correctly predicted every presidential winner since 1984.
Last month, he received a wave of criticism when he revealed that Harris had met what he believed were critical goals for victory.
Now, speaking to CTV News, Lichtman said his prediction ‘does not change from the ephemeral events of the campaign.’
He also explained that his prediction is “based on a fundamental understanding of how American presidential elections actually work, such as votes for or against the strength and performance of the White House party.”
Presidential historian dubbed the ‘Nostradamus’ of polling experts Allan Lichtman stands firm in his prediction that Democratic candidate Kamala Harris will become the next president of the United States.
Speaking to CTV News, Lichtman said his prediction ‘doesn’t change from the ephemeral events of the campaign.’
The model is based on 120 years of presidential election results and even allowed Lichtman to rate Trump’s unexpected 2016 victory a month before the election.
He relies on an unorthodox system of ignoring polls, based on what he calls the White House’s “13 Keys,” a model he developed in 1981 with his geophysicist friend Vladimir Keilis-Borok.
The model is based on 120 years of presidential election results and even allowed Lichtman to announce Trump’s unexpected victory in 2016 a month before the election.
He then used his tactic to correctly predict the outcome of the 2020 election.
As a result, he told CTV: ‘I certainly don’t change my prediction based on the polls.
‘If I had done that I would have been wrong in my prediction about Trump in 2016 when all the polls said otherwise.’
Explaining the mysterious 13 keys to the New York Times, Lichtman said: ‘They are 13 general, true or false questions that tap into the strength and performance of the White House party.
The 13 keys include: midterm achievements, mandate, primary race, third, short-term economics, long-term economics, policy change, social unrest, White House scandal, incumbent charisma, challenger charisma, failure of foreign policy and foreign policy success. .
The historian also told CTV about the “vulgar, defamatory and violent” hate he received after making his prediction about Harris last month.
Republican presidential candidate and former US President Donald Trump attends a campaign event in Allentown, Pennsylvania, US, on October 29, 2024.
“I have never, ever felt the kind of hate that I have seen this time,” Lichtman said.
“This is the toxic politics that Donald Trump has introduced into our society,” Lichtman said. “It never happened before Trump came.”
It comes after Lichtman recently spoke on his YouTube channel about the “election anxiety” Americans are experiencing leading up to Election Day.
‘Many people believe that the future of the country is at stake and that American democracy could be a thing of the past. I don’t think it’s an illegitimate fear.
“I am very concerned about the future of our elections. I think I have said it before: democracy is precious but, like all precious things, it can be destroyed,” he said.
Last month, another election forecaster who correctly called the 2020 outcome also anticipated a landslide victory for Harris.
Northwestern University data scientist Thomas Miller said Harris will defeat Trump in a landslide election, telling Fortune magazine: “It’s gone from a drastic landslide for Trump to a drastic landslide for Harris.” “.
Miller first gained attention after he accurately predicted the 2020 presidential election by unconventionally using betting markets instead of traditional polls to forecast the outcome.
He achieved this by developing a model, based on 16 presidential elections, that converted betting prices into the popular vote and Electoral College projections.
This model shows a close correlation between betting odds and the early popular vote.