Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have set their sights on Pennsylvania as the key to victory in the presidential election. But it is not his only path to the White House.
Last week, Harris visited the state twice with campaign events in Erie and Washington Crossing, Pennsylvania. Trump campaigned in Oaks, Pennsylvania, and Latrobe outside Pittsburgh.
Pennsylvania, with its nineteen electoral votes, is the largest of seven battleground states that could swing in either direction and decide the election.
And the latest polls show the race is tied in the crucial swing state, with Trump just half a point ahead in the Real Clear Politics average.
While the path to the necessary 270 electoral votes becomes much more complicated without Pennsylvania, that doesn’t mean the race is over for either Trump or Harris.
Kamala Harris and Donald Trump would have an easier time winning the White House with a victory in Pennsylvania, but winning the battleground state is not their only path to the presidency.
The former president won the state in 2016 on his way to the White House by fewer than 70,000 votes. But President Biden flipped it blue again in 2020 by just 80,000 votes.
If Harris wins Pennsylvania, then Trump’s most likely path to victory appears to be Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Michigan.
If Trump wins Pennsylvania, then Harris’ most likely path to the White House appears to be winning Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada and either Georgia or North Carolina.
Democrats haven’t won the White House without winning the Keystone State since 1948, but Republicans have successfully won in more recent years without it.
Seven states are considered swing states in the 2024 presidential race with 93 electoral votes at stake, but the path to the White House will depend on who wins Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina.
President George W. Bush served two terms without winning the state in 2000 and 2004.
The state is also emerging as the most expensive battleground, with hundreds of millions – more than half a billion in total – spent by both Democrats and Republicans on advertising there in the final stretch of the presidential race.
DailyMail.com breaks down what each candidate would need to win the presidency without winning the crucial Keystone state:
Trump’s path to winning without Pennsylvania
If Trump does not win Pennsylvania, his path to the White House will be much more difficult, although not impossible.
Whatever happens, Trump would have to make sure he kept either Georgia or North Carolina.
He has won both states before. He won North Carolina in both 2016 and 2020. He also won Georgia in 2016, but lost it by a very narrow margin in 2020.
Even if he wins both, he would still have to cut back on the so-called Democratic “blue wall” elsewhere, whether it’s Michigan or Wisconsin.
Both are states in which Democrats have a slight advantage, but are very thin in the final stretch.
Former President Trump’s likely path to battleground states without Pennsylvania could involve picking both southern swing states like Arizona, as well as at least one other “blue wall” state like Michigan.
If he wins the two southern swing states, the former president would also need a combination of at least two other battleground states, likely Arizona and then at least one each of Wisconsin or Michigan.
If he can’t secure Georgia and North Carolina, he would need to win at least one of them plus the other four battlegrounds, including Arizona, Nevada, Michigan and Wisconsin, to win the White House.
Harris’ path to winning without Pennsylvania
For Harris, not winning in the Keystone State also seriously complicates her path to victory, but it doesn’t eliminate it entirely.
Harris would need to win Georgia or North Carolina if she loses Pennsylvania to have any path forward, as well as at least three or potentially four other battleground states outside of Arizona, Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin.
Polls show her in tied races in Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin, while Trump has a slight lead in Arizona.
Without Pennsylvania, Vice President Harris’s path to battle state victory includes the other two “blue wall states,” a western state like Nevada, as well as at least one southern swing state like Georgia, which Democrats won in 2020. The path could also change Georgia for North Carolina.
While Biden won Georgia in 2020, the latest polling average from Real Clear Politics shows Harris trailing in both southern swing states.
He has lost almost a point in Georgia and just over a point in North Carolina.
With that, Harris was in Georgia to urge people to get out and vote on Saturday with a rally in Atlanta. He will also return to the state for his first joint campaign appearance with former President Obama on Thursday.