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Another week, another round of crucially important decisions about walkouts and sit-ins. To help you achieve them, here’s a look at six players with the potential to bust in Week 7.
Something to keep in mind as you read: A “fade” or “disappearance” designation doesn’t automatically mean you should sit a player, depending on the depth of the rest of your roster or the options available on your waiver wire.
Quarterback Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
As my esteemed colleague Andy Behrens points out, Goff is off to a quietly solid start to the 2024 NFL season, even if that hasn’t exactly translated into fantasy points. He leads all QBs (minimum 100 dropbacks) with 8.9 YPA while ranking in the top six in NFL passer rating and is coming off his second consecutive performance of 25 or more fantasy points, having finished like QB4 just last week.
Despite his recent success, Goff has a challenging matchup in Week 7 against one of the league’s best passing defenses: the Minnesota Vikings. DC Brian Flores has put opposing QBs in a blender to this point in the season, and they are returning from a layoff that has allowed them plenty of time to prepare for the game. The Vikings have allowed opposing passers the second-lowest EPA per dropback in the league (-0.27) per NFL Next Gen Stats while leading the league with 11 INTs despite already having their bye.
Heat control Goff should be on fantasy benches this week unless you’re in a two-QB or Superflex league.
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RB James Conner, Arizona Cardinals
This is Conner’s second appearance on the flop list this season. The first round returned a fantasy return of 3.0 points, so we hope this recommendation is just as accurate. Conner has played well this season (although not quite just as he did in 2023 (the best campaign of his career) and has been perfectly useful for fantasy. With 19 or more touches in four of six games this year, he’s more than earned his “workhorse” label, but even a heavy workload might not be enough against an above-average Los Angeles Chargers run defense in the season. Week 7.
A matchup with the Chargers isn’t the only point of contention here. It’s also worth noting that Conner is coming off a game with baffling usage, playing just 28% of the offensive snaps in Week 6. He was seen on the bench. have his ankles bandaged and appeared to be injured, but an eventual return to the field and HC Jonathan Gannon’s comments that his absence was related to the “game script” debunk that theory. It appears that Conner was benched in the second half after losing a fumble, as he did not have a single touch from that point on, giving up work to Emari Demercado to close out the game.
Heat control Consider Conner more of a flex RB2/RB3 option than a “must-have” RB in Week 7.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers RB
Yes, friends. I’m getting cute and fading the entire Buccaneers backfield just a week after Bucky Irving and Sean Tucker combined for 50.2 fantasy points replacing Rachaad White, who was out with a foot injury.
I know, I know: You’ve probably used your waiver priority or a portion of your FAB to acquire one of these guys at some point in the last two weeks. However, HC Todd Bowles has recognized that there is a three-headed monster brewing at the running back position in Tampa, and that three-headed monster is ready to face one of the most challenging RB matchups in the league.
The Baltimore Ravens are the league’s best run defense, allowing opposing running backs just 3.0 yards per carry, a 2.8% explosive rush rate and 2.1 yards after contact per attempt, all league-low marks.
Heat control I’ll avoid turning on any of the Buccaneers’ RBs unless I’m starving for options considering a challenging matchup and the uncertainty of how snaps will be split, especially if Rachaad White returns.
WR George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers
The Pittsburgh Steelers have been the subject of a lot of headlines this week, as rumors indicate that a possible QB switch from Justin Fields to Russell Wilson is on the horizon. While I don’t think the trade will hurt WR George Pickens’ value for the rest of the season (Wilson is an excellent deep passer, an area where Pickens excels), I have a lot of concerns that this isn’t his right play. .
Through the first six weeks of the season, the Jets secondary continues to play on all cylinders, and as talented a wide receiver as Pickens is, he will have to compete as the defense’s focus in coverage this week. They have been excellent at forcing shots in tight windows, with DJ Reed having a 50% TW rate in coverage, Tony Adams at 42.9% and Sauce Gardner at 29%, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. To put that in context, the average shooting percentage in closed windows for cornerbacks and safeties who have played 100 or more coverage snaps this season is 22.0%.
Heat control The Jets have allowed only two WRs to score more than 15 points in half-PPR scoring formats this year and not a single pass catcher of more than 92 yards. Heck, they limited Justin Jefferson to just 12.2 points on 14 targets. Consider Pickens a flexible boom/bust option this week, who is more likely to break out.
WR Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers
It’s been an up-and-down season for newly expanded 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk; he is finished as WR40 or lower in average PPR score leagues in five of six games this season. However, fantasy managers continue to install him, knowing that he’s probably still getting some rust from missing the offseason program and that Kyle Shanahan will surely come up with a remedy sooner rather than later.
Aiyuk also showed some progress in Week 5, going 8 of 14 targets for 147 yards with no touchdowns, but quickly fell back to earth with a 2-37-0 line against the Seahawks.
This week, the Niners will have a rematch of Super Bowl LVIII against the Kansas City Chiefs, who have been competent against WRs lined up on the perimeter this season, where Aiyuk has played 81.3% of the snaps this year. According to Next Gen Stats, the Chiefs are giving up just -0.26 EPA per dropback (fourth lowest) and a 30% success rate (lowest in the NFL) on targets for WRs lined up wide. par this season, with CB Trent McDuffie having his best performance. year yet.
Heat control You are not sitting Aiyuk. After all, any presumed starter in a Kyle Shanahan offense should be considered flexible in any given week. However, you should temper expectations for the recipient. This projects as a better matchup for Deebo Samuel.
TE Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills
Fantasy Football coaches were hoping for a Dalton Kincaid breakout this season without Stefon Diggs, but unfortunately, it hasn’t come true yet; he ranks as the TE15 in fantasy points per game heading into Week 7. Kincaid leads the Bills in both targets (30) and receptions (20), but Josh Allen’s willingness to distribute the ball has resulted in a lower concentration of targets than originally expected; Five different players have scored 15 or more goals so far this season.
Now, the Bills will add another man to the mix after having traded to acquire Amari Cooper from the Cleveland Browns, a bona fide WR1 intended to command a target WR1 share. The team is still unsure if Amari Cooper will play in Week 7, but if he does, it will be another complication in Kincaid’s search for a dominant target. Complicating matters is a challenging matchup against the Tennessee Titans, who are allowing a league-low 3.8 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends.
Heat control Turn on Kincaid in your lineups; Anyway, there are no locks on the position. But be careful that both the ceiling and the floor can be lower than average lately.