When the Japanese Naval Air Service bombed Pearl Harbor in 1941, its goal was to destroy American air power in the Pacific and prevent Uncle Sam from joining World War II.
What they achieved was precisely the opposite: the American people, outraged and furious, immediately committed themselves to the Allied cause, and Japan found itself facing a new and powerful enemy.
I fear that in yesterday’s devastating attack on thousands of pagers operated by Hezbollah terrorists across Lebanon, we have witnessed the Pearl Harbor of the 21st century.
The operation was, of course, spectacular in its own right: it left at least nine dead and more than 3,000 wounded, including, reportedly, Iran’s ambassador to Lebanon.
However, its broader meaning will surely resonate in the months and years to come.
In yesterday’s devastating attack on thousands of pagers operated by Hezbollah terrorists across Lebanon, did we witness the Pearl Harbor of the 21st century?
If Israel, like Imperial Japan before it, thought that this massive attack would serve to deter Hezbollah fighters from entering a full-scale war against the Jewish state, I fear they will be disappointed.
The Islamists must already be planning their revenge, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was reported last night to be locked in talks at his Defence Ministry headquarters in Tel Aviv on how to respond to a possible escalation.
And how did Israel actually achieve this?
There are several competing theories. One security expert suggested that the Israelis may have placed “old-fashioned booby traps” in the thousands of pagers that have reportedly been handed out to Hezbollah fighters in recent days.
Another theory, more compelling to me, was that the pagers were pre-loaded with a sophisticated computer virus that caused them to overheat, resulting in their lithium batteries catching fire.
This is a known risk of the batteries used in many electronic devices and is part of the reason airlines refuse to allow passengers to carry laptops in their checked luggage.
Regardless of how Israel carried out the operation, it is ironic that only recently did Hezbollah militants switch from cell phones to pagers, believing them to be safer.
It is well known that mobile phones carry GPS software that allows the devices (and therefore their users) to be tracked anywhere in the world.
Six weeks ago, Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh was tracked to a guesthouse in the Iranian capital Tehran and killed. Experts believe his assassination was only possible because his phone was being tracked.
The truth is that Israel is an expert at precisely this kind of warfare. After decades of confrontation with hostile neighbors who vastly outnumber its own citizens, the beleaguered Middle Eastern democracy has developed a fearsome array of sophisticated military tools, from nuclear missiles and tanks to cyber weapons.
Added to all this is the cruelty of its famous secret intelligence agency, the Mossad, in tracking down and eliminating its enemies, from the perpetrators of the Munich Olympics massacre onwards. As we have seen, the Mossad always gets its man (or men).
What now? If the reports are true and one in 30 of Hezbollah’s 60,000 fighters has effectively been put out of action by the pager attack, that will pose a serious impediment to the group’s operations. Leaders will also be wondering how to securely communicate with their fighters in the future.
How long will it be before Vladimir Putin or Xi Jinping figure out how to make millions of iPhones around the world burst into flames in the pockets of their enemies?
With Hezbollah’s military organization dismantled, the Israelis may decide to invade part of southern Lebanon to create a “buffer zone” that can protect civilians in northern Israel from rocket attacks.
I have my doubts about this “contained” approach. Despite the ingenious brutality of the pager attack, the consequences for regional security could be dire.
Instead, it is far more likely that the beeper operation is the prelude to another all-out war between Israel and Lebanon, with dire consequences for world peace.
Hezbollah’s allies Iran and Syria will inevitably fear that Israeli intelligence could do the same to them, but even Arab countries that have diplomatic relations with Israel, such as Egypt and Jordan, must now ask themselves to what extent they are really safe and whether their communication networks are secure or not. This will weaken Israel’s ability to forge friendships in the region.
And this could have consequences for us too. Western democracies will already be assessing what this new form of warfare means for them and how they might copy Israel’s methods.
History teaches us that no new military technique remains under the monopoly of its inventor for long. How long will it be before Vladimir Putin or Xi Jinping figure out how to make millions of iPhones around the world burn in the pockets of their enemies?
- Mark Almond is director of the Oxford Crisis Research Institute.