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It’s been eight weeks since Boeing’s Starliner spacecraft launched into orbit on an Atlas V rocket bound for the International Space Station. NASA officials said that The two crew members, Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams, could return to Earth as early as June 14, just eight days later.
Yes, there were some issues on Starliner’s journey to the space station involving helium leaks and thruster failures. But officials said they were relatively minor and tried to downplay them. “Those are pretty small issues, really, that need to be resolved,” Mark Nappi, vice president and manager of Boeing’s Commercial Crew Program, said during a post-docking news conference. “We’ll resolve those for the next mission. I don’t view them as major at all.”
But days turned into weeks, and weeks into months, as NASA and Boeing continued to study the two technical issues. Of these problems, the most pressing was the failure of the multiple reaction control system thrusters, which are essential to steering Starliner through its departure from the space station and preparing the engine for entry into Earth’s atmosphere.
In recent weeks, NASA and Boeing ground teams completed testing of a booster on a test stand in White Sands, New Mexico. Then, last weekend, Boeing and NASA fired the spacecraft’s thrusters in orbit to check its performance while docked to the space station. NASA has said preliminary results from these tests were helpful.
The dragon becomes a real option
A week ago, the last time NASA officials spoke to the media, the agency’s commercial crew program manager, Steve Stich, declined to elaborate on what would happen if NASA concluded that Starliner’s thrusters were not reliable enough for the trip back to Earth.
“Our main option is to complete the mission,” Stitch said a week ago“There are many good reasons to complete this mission and bring Butch and Suni home on Starliner. Starliner was designed, as a spacecraft, to have the crew in the cabin.”
For a long time, it seemed almost certain that astronauts would return to Earth aboard Starliner.
However, there’s been a lot of activity recently at NASA, Boeing, and SpaceX suggesting that Wilmore and Williams could return home aboard a Crew Dragon spacecraft instead of Starliner. Because of the critical importance of this mission, Ars is sharing what we know as of Thursday afternoon.
One informed source said there was a better than 50 percent chance the crew would return aboard Dragon. Another source said it was much more likely than not. To be clear, NASA has not made a final decision. It probably won’t happen until at least next week. NASA Associate Administrator Jim Free is likely to make the decision.
Asked whether it was now more likely that the Starliner crew would return aboard Dragon, NASA spokesperson Josh Finch told Ars on Thursday evening: “NASA is evaluating all options for the return of agency astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams from the International Space Station as safely as possible. No decisions have been made, and the agency will continue to provide updates on its planning.”
Putting the pieces of the puzzle together
Below are some data points that Ars can confidently report based on multiple sources:
- NASA continues to delay a decision. A flight readiness review meeting had been scheduled for today, August 1, several days in advance. However, it was cancelled. Instead, NASA issued a statement. Lazy blog update On Thursday, it was noted that “once Starliner return planning is finalized, which is expected to continue into next week, more information about preparations will be shared at the agency’s return readiness review and subsequent press conference.” So perhaps the meeting will take place next week.
- NASA issued a Task award of $266,678 On July 14, NASA sent SpaceX a “special study for emergency response.” NASA said this study was not directly related to the Starliner issues, but two sources told Ars it was. Although the study involved the work of bringing home more than just four crew members on Crew Dragon,A scenario related to Frank Rubio and the Soyuz MS-22 leaks—It also allowed SpaceX to study returning Dragon home with six passengers, a regular crew plus Wilmore and Williams.
- SpaceX has been actively working on a scenario where two either Four astronauts are taking off aboard Crew 9 (a normal crew is four). This mission has a nominal launch date of August 18, but it could well be delayed. SpaceX has already identified flight suits that would fit Wilmore and Williams, allowing them to fly home on either the Crew-8 spacecraft (currently docked to the space station) or the Crew-9 vehicle. It’s not clear how crews would be assigned to the two return Dragon flights. It’s possible that if four astronauts take off on Crew 9, five people could fly home on each of the two Dragons.
- Two sources told Ars that there has been intense debate at meetings at NASA field centers this week about whether or not to bring crew home on Starliner. As of Wednesday, several groups remain opposed to Starliner. It’s unclear how this issue will be resolved. Some engineers believe that if there are concerns about Starliner, NASA should take the safe route: flying on Crew Dragon, which has safely taken off and landed 13 times and 12 times.
The most difficult choice
NASA officials are faced with a difficult decision. Because there is still at least a small risk to flying Starliner in its current state, the space agency and Boeing have been testing the thrusters as thoroughly as possible while the spacecraft is docked to the space station. These tests were intended to “reduce” these risks. But while the data is good, it has not addressed all of NASA’s concerns.
What will the space agency do then? Starliner will probably be able to return to Earth without problems, but there seems to be some reasonable doubt that Starliner will return safely. If NASA sticks to its emergency plan, flying on Dragon could mean the end of the Starliner program. During Starliner’s development and testing, the company It has already lost 1.6 billion dollars. Repeating a crewed test flight mission, which would likely be necessary if Starliner were to return autonomously, would cost significantly more. Boeing could choose to cancel Starliner and leave NASA with only one crew transportation provider. That would be painful for both NASA and Boeing.
But the alternative — that Starliner doesn’t return home safely with the crew on board — is much, much worse. That’s the risk-reward decision that Free, Stich and other NASA officials will have to weigh in the coming days.
This story originally appeared in Ars Technica.