For desperately optimistic San Francisco 49ers fans, there will be a path through this remaining brutal maze and into the playoffs.
They will point to the extremely close race for the NFC West crown, which could be in play until the final week of the season. They’ll be crossing their fingers on injuries, hoping three of their four best players (quarterback Brock Purdy, defensive end Nick Bosa and offensive tackle Trent Williams) come out of the tunnel next week and turn everything around against the Buffalo Bills (9 -2). And they’ll definitely avoid thinking about how eerily similar this campaign has become to the 2020 season, when San Francisco was beset by health and identity issues following a Super Bowl loss the previous season, leading to a hugely disappointing record. 6-10 that inspired an eventual roster restructuring.
On that last point, it’s hard to ignore the symmetry of that lost 2020 season. Those 49ers were 5-6 in December, looked a shadow of themselves, and hosted the Bills in a game that looked like the last best chance to save the season. San Francisco lost 34-24, in a game that was never really as close as that score suggested. As it concluded, it was clear that the season was over and the 49ers had a lot of work ahead of them.
A week from now, the same could and probably will be said about the 2024 49ers, who look nothing like the team that came off last season’s Super Bowl loss. You could pick any 10-minute increment within Sunday’s atrocious 38-10 loss to the Green Bay Packers (the 49ers’ worst loss under Shanahan since 2018) and find alarming traits everywhere. A team that couldn’t dictate the run or find anything explosive when throwing the ball. A defensive front that took a slap on the ear from Packers running back Josh Jacobs on its first carry of the game and never seemed to recover. A general lack of focus that led to nine sanctions, several of which occurred at critical moments. And an overwhelming display of disappointing football that suggests these 49ers will fail to bounce back, just like the last edition that lost in a Super Bowl the season before.
“The whole game was (disappointing),” Shanahan said afterward. “To rate just the biggest (disappointment), the first half, just the run defense was really disappointing. … For them to be able to control that clock in the first half was one of the worst halfs I’ve ever been involved in.”
Shanahan uttered some iteration of the word “embarrassed” several times in his postgame press conference, applying the label to the entire team, which seemed like the appropriate reaction to a loss that is half lesson and half warning.
The lesson: The 49ers are as deadly as any team that can’t survive without a standout starting quarterback, an elite running back and a tone-setting offensive tackle. When they’re hurt, they’re vulnerable, especially against top-tier NFC teams like the Packers.
And the caveat: Let this be the standard that ends all the talk about Shanahan being able to make it work. any quarterback in your scheme, particularly if it’s a one-game situation. It’s a fallacy that’s been demonstrated before, but also conveniently and repeatedly forgotten every time someone dares to introduce Purdy’s name into a conversation about the best quarterbacks in the league. Yes, he has had his ups and downs this season. But rarely has the offense looked so flat and seemingly determined to shoot itself in the foot.
If anything, that Packers loss is an instant reminder of what life can be like when you don’t have a reliable quarterback running Shanahan’s offense. Certainly all of the problems weren’t simply Purdy’s absence, but the inability to find some sort of solution over the course of the game surely had something to do with the quarterback position. It turns out that the system generally looks better when the quarterback who adapts and masters that system is the one at the controls. That’s food for thought this offseason, when there will inevitably be conversations about the cost of Purdy’s contract extension versus his actual value to the franchise.
Of course, that’s a conversation for later. For now, the focus is on what this loss means for the 49ers. With the Los Angeles Rams’ loss to the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday night, the NFC West remains in the hands of the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals, both 6-5 and simultaneously competing for who will win the division and who will try gain. qualify for the final NFC wild card spot. At 5-6, the 49ers haven’t exactly come up empty when it comes to the postseason, but even if the math is still there, the spirit of what they’re looking for is problematic.
Purdy was already having consistency issues before his latest shoulder soreness kept him out of the game against the Packers. There’s no telling how big of a problem it will be when (or if) it returns. Although it’s certainly suggestive that in a game the 49ers needed to win against Green Bay, his shoulder was a big enough concern to keep him out. The same goes for Bosa’s hip and Williams’ ankle. Both may be close to returning, but neither of them are guaranteed to play at their highest level, for a team that needs them to play at a high level right now. And if that wasn’t enough, two other key players, defensive tackle Jordan Elliott and offensive guard Aaron Banks, left Sunday with concussion concerns.
Now, with the loss to the Packers, the intersection of these health issues comes heading into the most cross-country road game: Sunday night’s primetime game against a Bills team on a roll. A franchise that will be well-rested, coming off a bye week and stalking the AFC’s No. 1 playoff seed after convincingly beating the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 11. While that type of win would typically generate some fears of a disappointment in the next game, the bye week and the postseason qualification for the Bills effectively guarantee that they will show up ready to rock.
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If we’re being honest about what the 49ers face from a schedule perspective, the time to win was against the Packers. The fact that they couldn’t win on Sunday makes this game against the Bills and all the following ones a pseudo playoff game. Basically, that’s where the 49ers are. They are in a single-elimination postseason tournament that begins this week. And after the Bills, there are the Chicago Bears (still solving their own problems but improving), the Rams (who beat the 49ers in September), the Miami Dolphins (who are a handful with Tua Tagovailoa again under center), the Detroit Lions (Super Bowl favorites, winners of nine straight and seeking revenge for losing in the NFC title game) and, finally, a road game against the Arizona Cardinals, who are no longer press.
If we want to calm San Francisco’s problems, we don’t need to get into injuries, concentration and in-game inconsistencies. We can look at that uphill break, which at this point is more like climbing Mount Everest, and it tells us everything we need to know.
The 49ers’ 2024 season is over. We just haven’t seen it yet.