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Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders
When the Falcons have the ball: The focus will once again be on Michael Penix Jr. a week after starting his first NFL game. The competition almost couldn’t have been easier than facing the Giants, but I’d say Penix largely passed its initial test. The rookie was pressured on nearly 50% of his dropbacks last week, but he didn’t put the ball in danger and didn’t suffer a sack. The ball came out of his hands well and he didn’t make the classic rookie mistakes. His arm strength was also seen right away, as Penix was able to drive the ball from deep on deep routes down the field.
The ability to make those throws is key for Darnell Mooney, who has run those routes for this offense all season. He’s back on the high-end WR3 radar with Penix under center, especially since this game could generate high scores. The rookie quarterback also showed a good connection with Drake London before the receiver left the game early with an injury. It looks like London will be able to play in this game and we should expect them to have a significant workload. London has been key on slot routes against man coverage for the Falcons’ new offense. The Commanders play man at the fifth-highest rate on third and fourth downs this season.
Bijan Robinson is one of the top five running backs in the league right now, so the following isn’t exactly a great take, but I anticipate he’ll be a big swinger in the title game. Robinson touched the ball 24 times in Penix’s first start as the engine of the offense. According to Fantasy Points Data, Washington has allowed the ninth-highest success rate on zone runs this season, which is the meat and potatoes of Atlanta’s running game. He should be able to keep the offense on schedule and make big plays in Week 17.
When the commanders have the ball: We’re dealing with very small sample sizes here, but the Falcons defense has been on a strange mini-heater lately. Since Week 14, Atlanta has ranked sixth in EPA per play since Week 14. They have caused chaos and created big plays on defense. They also played Desmond Ridder and Drew Lock in that stretch. That might have something to do with this recent surge. The Washington Commanders’ offense will be a much tougher test.
Last week, Washington reminded us why it remains such a dangerous crime. Facing one of the league’s top defenses, you can’t say Jayden Daniels and the offense were error-free, but they made big plays to make up for the mistakes and ultimately won the contest. Hunting downfield on vertical routes outside the numbers will be key once again this week. According to NFL Pro, Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin (140.0) have the highest passer rating among quarterback-receiver duos since Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski with the Patriots in 2012 (140.1). Atlanta is vulnerable to the exact plays this duo has been so excellent at creating in 2024.
It will be interesting to see if Washington can get its running game back on track, after a nightmare outing by Brian Robinson Jr. last week. Overall, the Falcons’ defense has been a problem, ranking 25th in success rate allowed. It will help create a more stable offense if Robinson can get going early.
Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings
When the Packers have the ball: Nothing will be easy for the Packers in this matchup, as Minnesota is one of the most dangerous defenses in the league. Jordan Love posted big numbers on a negative game script the last time these two teams met, but so much has changed since then that it’s not too instructive.
The most significant difference between the Packers then and now is their intense commitment to the running game. The Packers are among the last teams in neutral passing rate in the second half of the season and no one can blame them for that. Josh Jacobs and a conceptually diverse running game have been good enough to be the engine of this passing attack. The Vikings run defense has been a tough unit to play against, ranking third in success rate allowed on the season. However, given the team’s well-deserved commitment to Jacobs as they try to keep Love out of long blitz situations, we should still expect the RB1 to get the ball 20+ times on the ground.
In the passing game, it looks like the Packers could be without Christian Watson on Sunday. If Watson misses the game, it will create the focus target fantasy players will need to bring Jayden Reed closer to the circle of trust. According to Fantasy Points Data, the Vikings are playing two-high coverage at the second-highest rate on late downs. When the Packers face two, Reed has 24% of the team’s yards and 2.26 yards per route run. Those plays highlight his layup route and yard-after-catch abilities.
You won’t get the same level of volume, but Tucker Kraft is another name to keep an eye on. He’s second to Reed in YAC when facing two talls this season because he’s been an answer for Love on the ground when pressured.
When the Vikings have the ball: The Vikings defense isn’t the only quality stopping unit in this matchup. Green Bay ranks third in EPA per play allowed since Week 10. They’ve had a few layup matchups in the mix lately, but this is an overall solid defense that’s adjusting to a well-designed system under Jeff Hafley. . This will be one of their biggest tests as the Vikings’ passing game is cooking.
Sam Darnold has thrown 15 touchdowns with just one pick since Week 11. He’s been exceptionally clean, even playing under pressure. The Vikings are loaded with playmakers and Kevin O’Connell is one of the league’s top offensive minds, but they have injuries on the offensive line. That hasn’t bothered Darnold. Since Week 11, he has a nearly equal passer rating when under pressure (110.6) compared to when kept clean (115.0), per Pro Football Focus. Considering how Darnold’s career has played out, that’s huge. It will be even more critical as Green Bay has really improved its blitz concepts.
We know what Justin Jefferson brings to the table, but getting Jordan Addison going has been a huge boost for this offense down the stretch. Fantasy managers need to be confident that Addison can function again in this matchup. It’s typically been the Vikings’ answer on pre-snap single coverage looks that turn into zones after the snap. The Packers rank 11th in zone coverage rate on late downs, where we typically see more men. Addison should find many of the looks she normally thrives on.
Denver Broncos vs. Cincinnati Bengals
When the Broncos have the ball: Broncos are in the driver’s seat for the AFC’s final playoff spot Yeah They win this game. If Denver lets him get away, things will get a little interesting for current 7-8 teams like Indianapolis, Miami, and this Bengals team on the other side.
The Broncos have to control the action in this contest and they face the right opposition to do so. The Bengals defense had some big moments last week against the Browns, but that team isn’t running a real offense under Dorian Thompson-Robinson. For most of the season, this Cincinnati defense has been a complete disaster. Sean Payton’s Broncos offense has been extremely well designed and takes advantage of the middle of the field. The Bengals defense is weak in the backbone of the defense with personnel departures and draft failures at linebacker and safety.
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The only thing that gives me pause is that we are in the middle of an erratic run of Bo Nix games. Nix ranks 24th in EPA per play over the past three weeks since returning from the bye. That includes that electric Monday Night Football victory over the Browns, where both Nix and Jameis Winston let their strange flags fly on downfield throws.
Lately, Nix has had a serious case of happy feet under pressure. Payton has responded by trying to take the air out of the ball and giving the rookie good responses on check-down passes. He has averaged 5.3 and 2.9 passing yards per attempt over the last two games. Nix has been precise and decisive in those checks, and last week was a good example of how the passing offense can still be productive when it comes to those plays. However, if the Broncos are going to hang with the Bengals, they’ll need Nix to set up shop in the pocket and push the ball up the middle to Courtland Sutton and company.
The matchup is suited for him to do just that.
When the Bengals have the ball: The matchup is exactly the opposite on the other side of the ball. The Broncos defense is number one in EPA per play allowed this season and is at full health right now with cornerback Riley Moss back in the fold. Meanwhile, the Bengals’ offense is firmly in the circle of confidence and can take a top-three spot in that ranking.
Joe Burrow has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league this season. It’s not their fault this team is below .500 and could miss the playoffs. The Bengals offense basically doesn’t fail. We’ve even gotten to the point where Chase Brown is a can’t-miss running back. He’s a running back who has improved a lot this season and has created an element of big play that hasn’t been present in the Bengals backfield for quite some time. He’s also an ideal layup target on checks and designer backfield routes for Burrow. That helps him reach a high statistical ceiling each week, even when the matchup between run defense and defense is tough, as it is this week.
The number one individual matchup will be Patrick Surtain II in coverage. Tee Higgins is dealing with an injury and cannot play in this game. We’ve seen that none of the deep receivers like Andre Iosivas or Jermaine Burton get a major boost when Higgins misses. Just expect to see more from Ja’Marr Chase, who has the kind of usage that will keep him away from Surtain. We don’t typically see the All-Pro cornerback travel to the slot (6% of pass routes, per PFF), but the Bengals have used Chase inside on a career-high 34% of his routes, this season. That will be a little trickier to implement if Higgins falters and weakens outside wide receiver options, but Cincy has been intentional about Chase’s slot targets even as his running mate misses time.
It only takes a small handful of Surtain plays to make a wide receiver’s week, as Jerry Jeudy showed us not long ago.