The Daily Mail today unveils its 2024 election model, offering our most in-depth look yet at who we think will win the battle between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
With two months to go until the decision date, we are predicted to be heading for a political cliffhanger with the final result coming down to just 20,500 votes in Pennsylvania.
And it is Trump, the former president, who is on track to overtake him, securing victories in the key states of Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada and Pennsylvania, the most crucial of all.
Harris is projected to win Wisconsin and Michigan, giving Trump a 287-251 electoral college margin.
But even that close result is on a very even scale. The model analyzes data from the past 80 years, including election results, polls and economic statistics, and concludes that Trump’s probability of victory is just 50.5 percent.
And the model’s algorithm can even count the necessary votes. In Pennsylvania, Trump could lose his crucial 19 electoral votes if just 20,500 people abandon him in favor of Harris.
Overall, Trump’s chances have plummeted since President Joe Biden dropped out of the race to be replaced by Harris.
The model, compiled by polling firm JL Partners, had Trump on track for an easy win. On the day in July, before Biden announced he was ending his re-election campaign, he had an 87 percent chance of winning.
However, not everything has gone as Harris hoped.
At times, his chances of winning outstripped Trump’s in August, before falling in the last week or so.
Still, reflecting the complexities of the Electoral College system, the model still gives him a 66 percent chance of winning the popular vote.
James Johnson, co-founder of JL Partners, said: ‘This is the closest election in the US in 24 years and will likely come down to a few thousand votes in the state of Pennsylvania.
‘But in this first update of our model, which uniquely controls who is on the ballot in each state, it is Trump who is ahead.
‘Harris has lost momentum since the Democratic National Convention and her CNN interview, and is losing enough votes, albeit a very small number, to left-leaning candidates to put Trump ahead in key states like Pennsylvania and Nevada.’
Johnson said Harris is rebuilding half of Democrats’ “blue wall” in Michigan and Wisconsin, but that won’t be enough for her to win.
“What’s most notable is the lead Trump had before Biden dropped out,” he added.
Our model had a probability of close to 90 percent: now that probability has been reduced to 50 percent.
‘This race will be decided very closely, but right now it is Trump who has it by the skin of his teeth.’
The model will be updated regularly between now and Election Day, giving DailyMail.com readers a front-row seat to every turn of the race.
And it includes special factors that Johnson says make it more accurate than rival versions elsewhere.
The race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump will be decided by the last minute
In particular, pay close attention to the other names appearing on the ballots in each state, such as Green candidate Jill Stein and independents Cornell West and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who remains on many ballots despite having suspended his candidacy and endorsed Trump.
The model takes into account that Stein and West tend to help Trump in Pennsylvania, for example, where they are expected to gain support from left-leaning voters who might otherwise back Harris.
By contrast, Kennedy has sought to limit the damage he has done to Trump since dropping out by withdrawing from races in states that will be competitive.
Harris has enjoyed a honeymoon since becoming the Democratic nominee. She has reversed a two-point deficit to Biden, built a two- to three-point lead in national polls and seen supporters flood her with donations.
Trump has played down his gains, telling DailyMail.com last week that he was pleased with the outcome of his campaign after securing Kennedy’s endorsement.