Home US 2024 presidential election: Donald Trump’s chances of beating Kamala Harris are increasing, says top forecaster

2024 presidential election: Donald Trump’s chances of beating Kamala Harris are increasing, says top forecaster

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2024 presidential election: Donald Trump's chances of beating Kamala Harris are increasing, says top forecaster

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Donald Trump’s chances of beating Kamala Harris in the 2024 general election have improved in recent days following a series of positive polls, according to a leading election forecaster.

The vice president is still considered the favorite in the latest 538 prediction, but the Republican candidate is closing the gap 41 days before the election.

538, formerly Five-Thirty-Eight, gives Harris a 55-in-100 chance of winning the Electoral College, while Trump has a 45-in-100 chance, up from 39 in September.

The shift comes in the wake of a Quinnipiac poll showing Trump leading Harris by 1 percent nationally and a New York Times/Siena poll putting him ahead in the key Sun Belt states of Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.

Harris returns to the campaign trail today in Pittsburgh to outline her plan to increase manufacturing across the United States, 24 hours after a similar policy speech by Trump in Savannah.

Follow all the developments in our live blog on American politics

Donald Trump sees his chances of winning the election increase after strong polls

epa11622703 Former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump participates in a campaign event on changing the tax code and promoting American manufacturing at the Johnny Mercer Theatre in Savannah, Georgia, U.S., September 24, 2024. EPA/ERIK S. LESSER

Donald Trump’s chances of beating Kamala Harris have improved thanks to a series of strong polls, according to a leading election forecaster.

Harris remains the front-runner, with a 55 percent chance of victory, while Trump is now at 45 percent after rising from 39 percent on Sept. 17.

G. Elliott Morris of 538 said Trump’s advance is due to a national Quinnipiac poll showing him with a 1-point lead and a New York Times/Siena poll showing him leading in the critical Sun Belt states of Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia.

“That’s hardly better than flipping a coin!” Morris adds.

‘Narrow margins in key states make this cycle’s presidential race the closest in decades; the outcome could be closer than any election in nearly 150 years.’

Rip:Kamala Harris to attend first in-person interview as Democratic candidate

Kamala Harris will finally have her first in-person interview as a Democratic presidential candidate on Wednesday night.

The vice president will sit down with MSNBC’s Stephanie Ruhle in Pittsburgh for a conversation that will air at 7 p.m. ET.

Harris’ strategy has largely been to avoid the media since President Joe Biden dropped out and she was catapulted into the nomination.

Nancy Pelosi scolds CNN anchor Jake Tapper on live TV for mentioning Trump’s wild claims about Kamala Harris

Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi rebuked a CNN anchor in a tense exchange for mentioning recent comments about Vice President Kamala Harris’s cognitive ability.

The San Francisco Democrat’s irascible response came after CNN anchor Jake Tapper asked her about recent comments by former President Donald Trump.

“Donald Trump says Kamala Harris has bigger cognitive problems than Joe Biden,” Tapper began as he appeared ready to finish his question.

Then Pelosi abruptly interjects: “Why would you cover that up?”

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Trump faces ‘real and specific’ assassination threats from Iran as ex-president says country is ‘terrified’ of his return

Donald Trump has claimed to have received intelligence indicating that Iran had made “real and specific threats” to assassinate him.

The Republican presidential candidate’s campaign gave the chilling update Tuesday night, in a statement that described the plans as “an effort to destabilize and sow chaos in the United States.”

The newsletter was sent by Trump campaign communications director Steven Cheung and claimed that the former commander in chief had been briefed on the alleged plot.

This comes days after investigators discovered that Iranian “malicious cyber actors” sent emails to associates of President Biden’s campaign with information “taken from stolen, non-public Trump campaign materials” over the summer.

This also follows two failed assassination attempts against the second-term presidential hopeful, the most recent of which occurred this month.

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