Productivity and Future Global Market Share Forecast
China’s electric vehicle production is growing at an astonishing rate, Europe is not far behind, while the growth rate of electric vehicle production in the United States is slightly behind China and Europe.
The latest data for 2022 published by CouponBirds financial expert Natalie Warb show that between 2015 and 2020, the U.S. electric vehicle productivity did not grow as fast as in Europe and China. In 2015, China’s total electric vehicle inventory accounted for 24% of the world’s total, and in 2020 it accounted for 44.21%, an increase of 93.34%. In these five years, the electric vehicle inventory in Europe increased by 87.97%. US inventories increased by 77.53%.
In 2020, 3.24 million units of battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles were sold globally. Global electric vehicle sales have been slow to grow until 2020, mainly due to a lack of public chargers, limited supply, high prices, and battery technology.
Global sales of electric vehicles reached 3 million in 2020, up 40% from 2019. It is predicted that after the outbreak of the COVID-19 in 2020, the market share of electric vehicles will grow rapidly, reaching 25% by 2025 and 60.9% by 2030.
In order to slow down global warming and achieve the Paris climate agreement target, many countries around the world have formulated carbon neutrality plans and encourage electric vehicles. It is inevitable that electric vehicles will replace fuel vehicles.
Shift To EVs Must Be Accelerated to Avoid Global Climate Disasters
Global warming has led to sea level rise and abnormal weather and climate disasters, which threaten the lives of all human beings. A full-scale adoption of electric vehicles could significantly reduce carbon emissions, as transportation accounts for about a quarter of the carbon pollution emitted by humans.
Gasoline and diesel-powered vehicles must be phased out if we want to avoid global climate disasters and their resulting loss of life and property.
The shift away from fossil-fuel-burning cars is too slow to avoid climate catastrophe, according to a report released by Greenpeace in November.
With global temperatures rising another 1.5 degrees Celsius from now, researchers have calculated how many new gas-guzzling cars humans can afford to hit the road. It works out that global automakers could build and sell 315 million gas cars. However, the group’s analysis found that automakers already plan to produce and sell nearly twice as many gas-powered vehicles – more than 645 million light-duty vehicles over the next 25 years.
Dates announced by leading automakers for eliminating fossil-fueled cars:
- Automakers that have proposed dates: GM by 2035, Kia by 2045.
- Volkswagen has previously set 2040 as the target, but has not yet released an exact plan.
- Toyota has not announced a date for its electrification plan. Its CEO has declared resistance to all-electric vehicle production. The shift to electric vehicles is expected to take longer than other automakers.
It is worth noting that even if all automakers stop producing gas cars, gas cars will continue to be driven on roads after 2050. The reason is that the average lifespan of a car now is 12 years.
Therefore, in order to avoid climate disasters caused by rising global temperatures, humans must fully adopt electric vehicles. But it’s a daunting task because actual carmakers’ plans are behind the dates put forward by many countries.
2020-2022 Prices Changes Of Major Electric Vehicles
At present, people have two views on buying a car: buy a gas car because the technology is more mature; buy an electric car because it can save energy costs in the long run. But average EV price is higher than new car average, meaning the upfront cost in saving energy bills can be unaffordable.
In October of 2022, the average transaction price for a new car (of any powertrain) was $48,281 according to Kelley Blue Book. At the same time, the average electric car price was $64,249 (for new cars).
According to Kelley Blue Book, in October 2022, the average transaction price of a new car (including electric vehicles and gasoline vehicles) is $48,281, an increase of 4.67% from a year ago. The average price of a new electric vehicle was $64,249 new, up 13.42% compared to a year ago.
Source: Graph by YAA; Data via Kelley Blue Book
Price: EV Average vs New Car Average
- December 2020: $53,811 vs $41,335
- December 2021: $63,821 vs $47,243
- October 2022 (latest price data): $64,249 vs $48,281
Why has the price of electric vehicles increased so rapidly in the past two years? The dominant reason is expensive batteries. The average price of a lithium-ion battery pack has fallen by nearly 90% from 2010 ($1,200 per kWh) to 2020 ($137 per kWh).
However, we’ve seen a sharp reversal in battery prices in the last two years. Industrial grade lithium carbonate from mines around the world has risen 400% since mid-2021. If the soaring price of lithium is taken into account in the cost of electric vehicles, we will come to a conclusion: in 2020, the value of lithium raw materials for each electric vehicle on average is close to $4,000. That number has climbed to $8,300 by early 2022. From the perspective of the supply and demand relationship of the car, even fuel vehicles are in short supply, let alone electric vehicles. Moreover, electric vehicles have added more luxurious designs, which has further boosted the price increase. Based on various factors, electric cars continue to rise in price.