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NFL training season is here, ladies and gentlemen. Prepare for an onslaught of information, rumors and hype articles. But fantasy managers shouldn’t be afraid of the onslaught of information: Scott Pianowski offers one key piece of information that every team should know. First up, the NFC South.
Atlanta Falcons
Kyle Pitts has been a disappointment in fantasy terms through three seasons, scoring just six touchdowns and consistently failing to match his ADP. But perhaps this was mostly due to a failure of the pieces around him. The Falcons haven’t had a quarterback with a league-average rating since Pitts joined the team, and outgoing head coach Arthur Smith was likely in over his head.
Pitts is still on the escalator, entering his age-24 season. And remember, he recorded 1,026 receiving yards in 2021. Second most by a rookie tight endKirk Cousins is obviously a much-needed upgrade at the quarterback position for the Falcons, and new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson He spent five years learning under offensive wizard Sean McVay.Mix in A very tight Atlanta schedule and Pitts still makes sense as a proactive fantasy pick, he’s currently the most overlooked TE7 in Yahoo drafts.
Carolina Panthers
Bryce Young’s rookie season was tough to watch, as he was below code in every major efficiency stat except interception avoidance. But maybe head coach Dave Canales can fix Young. Canales’ fingerprints were all over Baker Mayfield’s career season last year, and he was also an architect for Geno Smith’s emergence in 2022.
Even if Young improves, it could be tough for him to claim fantasy value in a traditional league. He’s probably best left as a backup option or a Superflex consideration. But if we have modest hope for Young, that would likely push Diontae Johnson into credible fantasy territory. Johnson has little competition for targets in Carolina, and he won’t have to do much to overcome his current Yahoo tag of WR35.
New Orleans Saints
Alvin Kamara is a controversial fantasy pick heading into 2024. My colleague Andy Behrens recently posted some pro-Kamara thoughts, and I always respect Andy’s opinion. But I’m concerned that Kamara is more focused on volume accumulation than flashy plays these days, and that has me writing off the veteran heading into his age-29 season.
Kamara was a reliable fantasy producer after his suspension in 2023, finishing fifth in PPR scoring at half a point per gameThat position was bolstered by his regular use in the passing game: He had 75 receptions, second most in the league. The reception count is excellent, but those plays weren’t all that successful: Kamara’s 6.2 yards per reception is a career low. and a drop of 2.4 yards from the previous year.
The warning signs are most apparent with Kamara as a running back. Kamara managed just 3.9 yards per carry last year and didn’t have a single rush of more than 20 yards (a staggering lack of explosiveness; heck, Baltimore backup Keaton Mitchell had seven such rushes on just 47 carries). Mix it all up, and Kamara recorded 5.4 yards per touch, the third straight year he’s fallen into that category. It’s a far cry from the 8.3 YPT he posted in his rookie season.
The Saints aren’t going out of their way to get easy touchdowns for Kamara; he’s scored just 10 times in his last 28 games. Taysom Hill might look for some goal-line work, and second-year running back Kendre Miller is also intriguing after a disappointing first season (marred mostly by injuries; He appeared in week 18). Given Kamara’s age and declining efficiency, I can’t see him as a fantasy target pick this summer.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
While receivers often have hit-or-miss touchdown rates, there’s something to be said for consistent play design. Mike Evans has long been the designated touchdown threat in Tampa Bay’s passing game, and that makes him an attractive fantasy pick heading into his age-31 season.
Evans, of course, has recorded 1,000 or more yards in all 10 of his pro seasons. He’s probably already earned a spot in the Hall of Fame. But it’s the touchdowns that frame Evans as fantasy royalty; he’s had 46 touchdowns over the past four years, including a league-high 13 touchdown receptions last year.
Contrast this with Chris Godwin, a reliable possession receiver who doesn’t score often. Though Godwin has 50 more receptions than Evans over the past four seasons, Godwin is a modest 17 touchdowns over that span, a whopping 29 scores behind his teammate. Sometimes disparities like this show up over a season or two, but since this touchdown trend is four years old, it’s wise to track it. That’s what Yahoo’s scouts are doing, pushing Evans into the WR14 spot while Godwin is a modest WR36.
